Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates XRG) had reduced the 2026 Vuelta a España to a contest for second place. After seven stages, the world champion led Enric Mas (Movistar Team) by 3:50, with Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) another minute behind.
His stage 8 crash and withdrawal changed the whole outlook of the race. Pogačar suffered a broken collarbone, a stable C7 vertebra fracture (base of the neck), concussion and multiple abrasions. He is awaiting surgery in Barcelona, which must be delayed until the concussion has cleared sufficiently for an operation.
After stage 9 on Sunday, Mas leads Roglič by 1:18 and Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM Team) by 1:39. Oscar Onley (Netcompany INEOS) is fourth, Richard Carapaz is fifth and the top eight are separated by 4:39.
Mas leads, but Roglič holds the time-trial advantage
Mas now sits as the main favourite after he won stage 9 at Alto de Aitana while wearing red, launching his attack with fewer than three kilometres remaining. Onley finished on the same time. Mas also stayed relatively close to Pogačar on the earlier summit finishes and has been Vuelta runner-up three times. The issue is that he needs time on one man: Primož Roglič. The former Olympic and current Slovenian ITT champion is the best against the clock of all the GC riders and the experienced leader has a 32.1km ITT to Jerez on stage 18 in which to take a big chunk of time. He currently sits second at 1:18 from Mas. That is not enough.
Roglič, while not in red, can afford to follow and bide his time. If the four-time Vuelta winner doesn’t lose any time and perhaps takes bonuses at sprint finishes, then he is in the driving seat heading into stage 18. However, he has shown on the Alto de Aitana that he may be missing that little bit extra to really compete with Mas on the climbs. A fifth title would take him beyond Roberto Heras as the race’s outright record holder. However, his preparation for the race was less than ideal with a late-July training crash ruling him out of the Clásica San Sebastián and Vuelta a Burgos, while his limited 2026 results raised questions about his form before the start.
Gall, Onley and Carapaz need to attack
Gall needs time on everyone. On stage 9 his team ripped up the Aitana and put several riders under pressure, Sepp Kuss (Visma-Lease a Bike) being the biggest loser from their tempo setting. But, when it came to Gall’s time to attack, he looked tentative and unsure, with multiple attempted accelerations easily dealt with by his rivals. The Austrian has had a superb season, with the highlights being runner-up at the Giro and winning the Vuelta a Burgos just before this Vuelta. However, he needs as much time as possible on his rivals, as he is 1:39 down on Mas and will lose a big chunk in the ITT to Roglič.
Onley has bounced back from gastro issues earlier on in the race to put in a superb climbing performance on Aitana where he finished on the same time as Mas. He took a stage and second overall at Burgos as well, and while he has limited Grand Tour experience, he has already finished fourth in the Tour de France. He has had a mixed year with Burgos being his first race back after crashing out of the Tour Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes where he dislocated his shoulder. He seems to be coming into very good form but, similarly, will need to limit his losses in the time trial.
Carapaz has the experience to disrupt and is far enough down to be allowed a little bit more leeway on attacks, which is how he won the Giro back in 2019. He hasn’t yet found the form he had in the final week of the Tour, but he tends to excel late in Grand Tours, so may be in with a chance on the later mountain stages, where he can potentially exploit any hesitation as Mas, Roglič and Gall mark one another.
Calar Alto, Sierra de La Pandera, Peñas Blancas and Collado del Alguacil provide the terrain for those attacks, with the remaining route placing major climbs on both sides of the Jerez time trial.
Pogačar’s absence has also changed how the fights for the other classifications are going. Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious) now leads Mas by five points in the mountains classification, while Wout van Aert (Team Visma-Lease a Bike) holds a solid points lead over teammate Matthew Brennan.
For Mas, Roglič, Gall, Onley and Carapaz, Pogačar’s departure has created an unexpected chance to win a Vuelta that looked settled only two days earlier.
