Geraint Thomas and Luke Rowe have questioned Primož Roglič’s (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) prospects at the Vuelta a España, with his participation uncertain eight days before the race begins.
A car struck Roglič during a training session in late July, leaving a large bruise on the back of his leg. He subsequently withdrew from the Clásica San Sebastián and Vuelta a Burgos, removing both planned races from a season built around the Vuelta.
Speaking on their Watts Occurring podcast, Thomas said: “He’s definitely past his best. I’m not too sure. Yeah, it’ll be interesting. You know, he’s been targeting this race all year.”
Thomas argued that Roglič’s dedicated preparation could still help because many of the other contenders have already ridden a Grand Tour or changed their programmes after earlier setbacks. Roglič chose not to target either the Giro d’Italia or Tour de France in 2026, making the Vuelta his only planned Grand Tour.
Rowe was more concerned by the lack of racing. Roglič had completed 28 race days before the crash and has not competed since the Slovenian national championships in late June.
“If you crash at the Vuelta or something happens, there’s nothing after that, there’s no backup,” Rowe said. “Roglič has raced 28 days this year, but he hasn’t been the dominant Roglič of years past.”
Pogačar sets a higher benchmark
Rowe still expects Roglič to contend if he reaches the start in Monaco on August 22, but rated him well below Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates XRG), the 2026 Tour de France winner and leading favourite.
“He’s still been solid and I think he’s the type of guy, if he really targets something, usually he turns up and he’s there or thereabouts,” Rowe said. “But is he Poggy level? I think he’s a long way off, to be honest.”
Pogačar’s return to the Vuelta has now been confirmed, with UAE Team Emirates XRG naming its squad for the race. Roglič, by contrast, has yet to announce his attendance fully.
Roglič described the collision as “not the best scenario” when announcing his withdrawals on July 31, but said his focus remained on the Vuelta. “Now it’s all systems go towards La Vuelta, we work and hope things will turn around,” he wrote on social media.
By late June, Roglič had posted consistent results but no wins. Roglič placed fifth at Tirreno-Adriatico, third at Milano-Torino, 16th at the Tour of the Basque Country, 18th in the Tour de Romandie and eighth in the Tour de Suisse before returning to the Slovenian championships.
Rowe contrasted that schedule with Oscar Onley (Netcompany INEOS) and Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM Team), who both raced the Vuelta a Burgos. Gall won the general classification, while Onley took a stage and finished second overall after redirecting his season towards Spain following an earlier crash.
Roglič won the Vuelta in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2024. A fifth title would move him ahead of Roberto Heras as the race’s outright record holder, provided he recovers in time for the opening individual time trial in Monaco.
Cover image credit: Zac Williams/SWpix.com
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