Where we go from here - the five questions for the rest of the cycling season

Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) leaves the Tour de France with a record-equalling fifth victory and one immediate decision: pursue the only Grand Tour missing from his palmarès, or prepare more directly for the Montréal World Championships with more of a focus on training and one-day races?

The decision could shape Pogačar’s schedule, Isaac del Toro’s programme, La Vuelta’s general classification field and how several leading riders approach the final two months of 2026.

Will Pogačar race La Vuelta, or prioritise Canada?

Pogačar kept his plans open in his post-stage 21 broadcast interview with Seb Piquet in Paris, saying “let’s see” when asked whether he would finally return to La Vuelta. He made his Grand Tour debut there in 2019, finishing third and winning the young rider classification, before taking his first Tour victory in 2020. He has not raced La Vuelta since, but could this be the year?

La Vuelta starts on Saturday, August 22nd in Monaco and runs for three weeks finishing in the Andalusian city of Granada on Sunday, September 13th. That leaves two weeks between the end in Granada and the world championship road race on Sunday, September 27th in Montréal. The route for La Vuelta is, as usual, brutal with 3,275km on the menu that includes six mountain stages, four medium-mountain stages and two individual time trials. That provides deep conditioning at the cost of the accumulated fatigue of a three-week race.

Québec GP on September 11 and Montréal GP on September 13 provide a more controlled alternative. Both use repeated climbing circuits, while the Worlds course is listed at 273.7km with 3,803 metres of climbing. Arriving in Canada early would also give Pogačar time to recover, train between races and adjust to the time zone.

On balance, Pogačar is more likely to head to Canada early, prioritising recovery before racing the two one-day events. La Vuelta is not out of the question, but another attempt at the World Championships appears the likelier objective.

Who is most likely to return for La Vuelta?

Photo: Zac Williams/ SWPix.com

Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) has the clearest stated objective. The 36-year-old has built his season around pursuing a fifth Vuelta victory, which would take him beyond the four-win record he shares with Roberto Heras. He also will be wanting to go out on a high with his team as it has been confirmed that he will be leaving at the end of the season to a, as yet, unknown team.

Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) is another plausible contender after his strong final week at the Tour, although his participation remains a prediction rather than confirmed. The former Olympic champion took two stage wins and the mountains classification at the Tour. La Vuelta could offer him another opportunity to pursue a second Grand Tour victory after finishing runner-up to Roglič in 2020 and fourth in 2024.

Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) could defend his title after winning the Giro and crashing out of the Tour, but that depends on his recovery and his team’s assessment. The team have left things open for the Danish star with the most likely scenario being that he ends his season there. However, if recovery from his fractured collarbone and subsequent surgery is good then he may be good enough to return to the Spanish Grand Tour and have a good go at retaining his title.

Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) broke his collarbone a couple of days after Vingegaard at the Tour and faces a similar recovery time. But the German may be told he needs to appear at the Deutschland Tour much like last season and Roglič’s position as definitive leader may have already decided this.

Del Toro’s programme is closely connected to Pogačar’s. If Pogačar rides La Vuelta, Del Toro is more likely to target Canada, possibly Plouay and then the Italian races. If Pogačar chooses Canada, a Vuelta opportunity could open for his younger teammate who has podiumed his last two Grand Tours but finished 36th in his first Vuelta in 2024.

Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) is another possible entrant, although Roglič’s stated leadership objective means that is very unlikely. Felix Gall (Decathlon-CMA CGM) may return to racing after not pinning on a number since he finished second in the GC of the Giro back in May. Whether the Austrian has the form is another thing and the time trials may mean he decides to avoid. Oscar Onley (Netcompany-Ineos) is likely to head to the final Grand Tour as the rider from Kelso in Scotland will have hopefully recovered from his dislocated shoulder at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes. That said, the Tour of Britain finishing very close to Onley’s hometown may be the pull he needs to return to the race for a fourth time in his carer.

Where do the sprinters go?

Photo: ASO/ Charly Lopez

La Vuelta offers roughly four to six realistic sprint opportunities across 21 stages. That can justify the trip for a sprinter whose team values Grand Tour exposure, but the return is limited beside the race’s mountain load.

The Renewi Tour, held from August 19th to 23rd, is the strongest compact alternative. Its five-day WorldTour format combines likely bunch finishes with harder stages around Geraardsbergen and Leuven making it perfect for sprinters and Classics specialist. Riders like Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech), Tim Merlier (Soudal-QuickStep) and Biniam Girmay (NSN) will likely choose this option.

The Tour of Britain runs in its slightly earlier calendar position of September 2nd to 6th and has at least three clearly identified sprint finishes, although its 8,814 metres of climbing create a mixed programme. Olav Kooij (Decathlon-CMA CGM) has shown he is a fan of this race with several stage wins to his name and Decathlon have a big presence in the UK, so would make sense. Matthew Brennan (Visma-Lease a Bike) would also be an obvious option to race at home with maybe even a shot at the GC. Jonathan Milan or Mads Pedersen, maybe even both, will probably appear at the Deutschland Tour with Lidl a key sponsor of the race and Lidl-Trek holding a German race licence.

For pure sprinters, the provisional order is Renewi, La Vuelta, Tour of Britain and Deutschland Tour. Confirmed start lists and individual team objectives could change it.

Which route best prepares the Worlds contenders?

For riders prioritising the Montréal worlds road race, the preparation routes rank as follows:

1. Québec and Montréal: the closest match in location, timing and repeated climbing, with both races held less than three weeks before the Worlds.
2. Tour of Britain: five stages and 910.3km offer sustained intensity without the load of a Grand Tour with varied terrain and space to build form and test the legs on similar tests to the worlds course.
3. Renewi Tour: compact WorldTour racing suits riders seeking repeated hard efforts, although its Belgian terrain is less specific to Montréal. But the late Flandrien tests could provide much needed challenges towards the race for the rainbow jersey.
4. La Vuelta: the best option for GC endurance and mountain volume, but the hardest route from which to arrive fresh. Not many riders have come off the back of La Vuelta and gone on to win the worlds road race in recent years.

Which riders go where is a puzzle that many team manager and directors of racing will be pondering over now. Possibly with a small hangover after the post-Tour parties on Sunday night.

What happens to the returning riders, and to Seixas?

Photo: ASO/ Thomas Maheux

Riders like Vingegaard, Onley and Lipowitz all have injuries to recover from. If La Vuelta is not an option, Lipowitz could ride the Deutschland Tour, while Onley may return on home roads at the Tour of Britain. Vingegaard could instead target the European Championships and Il Lombardia, or end his season and focus on 2027.

Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike) has already identified Montréal as an important objective. After returning to racing in Denmark, Renewi or the Tour of Britain appears more likely than La Vuelta because either would provide competition without consuming the full build-up to Canada. But the Canadian races are his most likely destination before the worlds where he will probably also ride the time trial.

Paul Seixas (Decathlon-CMA CGM) is probably going to ride the European Championships. A Worlds appearance is less certain because I think the course doesn’t suit him as well as the other favourites and he looked absolutely exhausted after the Tour. His team is then likely to limit his Italian programme, with Il Lombardia serving as the probable final major target. But I would not be surprised if he doesn’t race again this season after what has been a stunning year for the 19-year-old.

Cover image credit: Morgan Bove