Analysis: If Seixas can’t distance Del Toro now, what hope does he have against Pogačar and Vingegaard at the Tour?

Analysis: If Seixas can’t distance Del Toro now, what hope does he have against Pogačar and Vingegaard at the Tour?

Paul Seixas animated the first summit finish of the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, but Isaac del Toro matched him to the line and the wider GC damage stayed modest. For a rider heading to his first Tour de France, the margins were tighter than the hype suggested.

By Tim Bonville-Ginn · · 5 min read

Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM Team) went on the attack on the first summit finish of the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes on Friday as he attempted to gain time on his rivals after losing almost a minute in the TTT. However, Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) followed him and rolled in ahead of him in Crest-Voland with other rivals staying close by. That does not bode well as he faces bigger names at his debut Tour de France next month.

The stage was largely shaped by the 60-strong breakaway with Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe making the most of the day with four riders in the group. Two paced the whole day – Gianni Vermeersch and Callum Thornley – before Maxim Van Gils made a comeback win. It was his first win after not racing since Clasica Jaen in February. He out-sprinted Tobias Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility), while Van Gils' teammate, Luke Tuckwell took the yellow jersey after finishing third.

Further down the road, the big GC names were starting to get involved in the racing with Seixas starting stage 6 most expected to show his form in this very mountainous final three stages. He was a minute back on yellow jersey Alex Baudin (EF Education-EasyPost) and then about 50 seconds from Kevin Vauquelin (Netcompany-Ineos), Oscar Onley (Netcompany-Ineos) and Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike) with 13 seconds on Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek) and Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek).

The stage didn't really lend itself to a race-defining attack from either Seixas or Del Toro, who were certainly the two main favourites coming into this race. But, Seixas did look to be on his limit at times on the final climb. The attack close to the bottom of the final climb saw riders like Baudin, Vauquelin and Cian Uijtdebroeks (Movistar) immediately lose contact.

He then gapped Ayuso and Skjelmose, though the Lidl-Trek pair settled into a steady tempo and limited their losses, joined by Jørgen Nordhagen (Visma | Lease a Bike). Jorgenson held on longer before being dropped with three kilometres remaining, losing only 13 seconds to Seixas and Del Toro on a day where he had started with roughly a minute's GC advantage.

Seixas would likely have wanted bigger and more decisive gaps on his rivals, and not have the added complication of six riders being ahead of him in GC. Most of them should be safely dispatched early on at the weekend, but Jorgenson still has 32 seconds on him. Former runner-up at the Giro Next Gen, Tuckwell, has over three minutes ahead in yellow – catching him will not be an easy task. Someone of the Frenchman's ability should flourish with the terrain still to come, though.

Results

Jun 12

Velora
PosRiderTeamTime
🥇
Maxim van Gils
RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE4:06:34
🥈
Tobias Halland Johannessen
UNO-X MOBILITY+0:00
🥉
Luke Tuckwell
RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE+0:06
4
Pablo Torres Arias
UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG+0:13
5
Raul Garcia Pierna
MOVISTAR TEAM+0:33
6
Yannis Voisard
TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM+0:33
7
Jordan Jegat
TOTALENERGIES+0:33
8
Cristian Rodriguez Martin
XDS ASTANA TEAM+0:33
9
Clément Braz Afonso
GROUPAMA-FDJ UNITED+0:33
10
Lennart Jasch
TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM+0:33
11
Sam Maisonobe
COFIDIS+0:33
12
Jose Felix Parra Cuerda
CAJA RURAL-SEGUROS RGA+0:33
13
Lars Craps
LOTTO INTERMARCHÉ+1:01
14
Bruno Armirail
TEAM VISMA | LEASE A BIKE+1:01
15
Guillaume Martin Guyonnet
GROUPAMA-FDJ UNITED+1:18
16
Georg Steinhauser
EF EDUCATION - EASYPOST+1:18
17
Matteo Vercher
TOTALENERGIES+2:02
18
Michael Gogl
ALPECIN-PREMIER TECH+2:26
19
Quinn Simmons
LIDL-TREK+2:34
20
Isaac del Toro Romero
UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG+3:15
21
Paul Seixas
DECATHLON CMA CGM TEAM+3:15
22
Matteo Jorgenson
TEAM VISMA | LEASE A BIKE+3:28
23
Mattias Skjelmose Jennow Jensen
LIDL-TREK+3:37
24
Juan Ayuso Pesquera
LIDL-TREK+3:37
25
Robbe Dhondt
TEAM PICNIC POSTNL+3:41
26
Jørgen Nordhagen
TEAM VISMA | LEASE A BIKE+3:41
27
Pablo Castrillo Zapater
MOVISTAR TEAM+4:11
28
Cian Uijtdebroeks
MOVISTAR TEAM+4:11
29
Ramses Debruyne
ALPECIN-PREMIER TECH+4:15
30
Lucas Plapp
TEAM JAYCO ALULA+4:27
31
Daniel Felipe Martinez Poveda
RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE+4:27
32
Léo Bisiaux
DECATHLON CMA CGM TEAM+4:27
33
Carlos Rodriguez Cano
NETCOMPANY INEOS+4:34
34
Alex Baudin
EF EDUCATION - EASYPOST+4:47
35
Jan Castellon Ribalta
CAJA RURAL-SEGUROS RGA+4:47
36
Kévin Vauquelin
NETCOMPANY INEOS+4:47
37
Nicolas Breuillard
TOTALENERGIES+4:47
38
Simone Velasco
XDS ASTANA TEAM+4:55
39
Harold Alfonso Tejada Canacue
XDS ASTANA TEAM+4:57
40
Valentin Paret Peintre
SOUDAL QUICK-STEP+5:17
41
Alessandro Covi
TEAM JAYCO ALULA+5:18
42
Clément Berthet
GROUPAMA-FDJ UNITED+5:21
43
Martin Svrček
SOUDAL QUICK-STEP+5:38
44
Steff Cras
SOUDAL QUICK-STEP+5:48
45
Ben Tulett
TEAM VISMA | LEASE A BIKE+6:18
46
Anders Skaarseth
UNO-X MOBILITY+6:34
47
Torstein Træen
UNO-X MOBILITY+6:34
48
Sean Quinn
EF EDUCATION - EASYPOST+7:38
49
Kevin Vermaerke
UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG+8:17
50
Pavel Sivakov
UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG+8:17
51
Louis Rouland
COFIDIS+9:00
52
Lorenzo Fortunato
XDS ASTANA TEAM+9:36
53
Toms Skujins
LIDL-TREK+10:29
54
George Bennett
NSN CYCLING TEAM+10:29
55
Robin Donzé
TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM+11:22
56
Mathieu Burgaudeau
TOTALENERGIES+11:22
57
Rudy Molard
GROUPAMA-FDJ UNITED+11:22
58
Andreas Lorentz Kron
UNO-X MOBILITY+11:32
59
Anders Halland Johannessen
UNO-X MOBILITY+11:32
60
Ethan Edward Hayter
SOUDAL QUICK-STEP+12:45
61
Aurélien Paret Peintre
DECATHLON CMA CGM TEAM+12:55
62
Nicolas Prodhomme
DECATHLON CMA CGM TEAM+12:55
63
Benoit Cosnefroy
UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG+12:55
64
Dorian Godon
NETCOMPANY INEOS+12:55
65
Gal Glivar
ALPECIN-PREMIER TECH+12:55
66
Mauri Vansevenant
SOUDAL QUICK-STEP+13:44
67
Hugo Houle
ALPECIN-PREMIER TECH+15:06
68
Carlos Verona Quintanilla
LIDL-TREK+15:06
69
Nicola Conci
XDS ASTANA TEAM+15:06
70
Felix Engelhardt
TEAM JAYCO ALULA+15:21
71
Georg Zimmermann
LOTTO INTERMARCHÉ+15:21
72
Lennard Kämna
LIDL-TREK+15:21
73
Michel Heßmann
MOVISTAR TEAM+15:21
74
Laurens de Plus
NETCOMPANY INEOS+15:21
75
Sergio Samitier Samitier
COFIDIS+15:21
76
Mathis le Berre
TOTALENERGIES+15:21
77
Anthon Charmig
UNO-X MOBILITY+15:21
78
Sergi Darder Gari
CAJA RURAL-SEGUROS RGA+16:46
79
Gianni Vermeersch
RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE+18:47
80
Callum Thornley
RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE+18:47
81
Edoardo Affini
TEAM VISMA | LEASE A BIKE+18:47
82
Roland Thalmann
TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM+18:47
83
Alex Diaz Alvarez
CAJA RURAL-SEGUROS RGA+19:02
84
Pepijn Reinderink
SOUDAL QUICK-STEP+19:47
85
Pascal Eenkhoorn
SOUDAL QUICK-STEP+19:47
86
Martin Bugge
UNO-X MOBILITY+19:47
87
Emanuel Buchmann
COFIDIS+19:47
88
Per Strand Hagenes
TEAM VISMA | LEASE A BIKE+19:57
89
Baptiste Veistroffer
LOTTO INTERMARCHÉ+19:57
90
Mathieu Kockelmann
LOTTO INTERMARCHÉ+20:31
91
Matthew Fox
LOTTO INTERMARCHÉ+20:31
92
Quentin Pacher
GROUPAMA-FDJ UNITED+20:31
93
Gijs Leemreize
TEAM PICNIC POSTNL+22:14
94
Valentin Ferron
COFIDIS+22:14
95
Jasha Sütterlin
TEAM JAYCO ALULA+22:14
96
Joan Bou Company
CAJA RURAL-SEGUROS RGA+22:14
97
Matteo Trentin
TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM+22:43
98
Luke Durbridge
TEAM JAYCO ALULA+22:43
99
Jacob Eriksson
TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM+22:43
100
Nikias Arndt
BAHRAIN VICTORIOUS+22:43
101
Marco Frigo
NSN CYCLING TEAM+22:43
102
Joao Pedro Gonçalves Almeida
UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG+22:43
103
Phil Bauhaus
BAHRAIN VICTORIOUS+22:43
104
James Alexander Knox
TEAM PICNIC POSTNL+22:43
105
Vito Braet
LOTTO INTERMARCHÉ+22:43
106
Henri Uhlig
ALPECIN-PREMIER TECH+22:43
107
Hugo Hofstetter
NSN CYCLING TEAM+22:43
108
Alexy Faure Prost
TEAM PICNIC POSTNL+23:16
109
Geoffrey Bouchard
TOTALENERGIES+23:44
110
Bryan Coquard
COFIDIS+24:56
111
Benjamin Thomas
COFIDIS+24:56
112
Max Walker
EF EDUCATION - EASYPOST+24:56
113
Lennert Belmans
ALPECIN-PREMIER TECH+25:55
114
Thibault Guernalec
TOTALENERGIES+25:55
115
Nadav Raisberg
NSN CYCLING TEAM+26:05
116
Julien Bernard
LIDL-TREK+26:28
117
Vlad van Mechelen
BAHRAIN VICTORIOUS+27:06
118
Santiago Buitrago Sanchez
BAHRAIN VICTORIOUS+27:06
119
Henri François Renard Haquin
TEAM PICNIC POSTNL+27:06
120
Dillon Corkery
TEAM PICNIC POSTNL+27:06
121
Pello Bilbao Lopez de Armentia
BAHRAIN VICTORIOUS+27:06
122
Samuel Watson
NETCOMPANY INEOS+27:22
123
Alastair Mackellar
EF EDUCATION - EASYPOST+27:44
124
Daan Hoole
DECATHLON CMA CGM TEAM+28:32
125
Stefan Bissegger
DECATHLON CMA CGM TEAM+28:32
126
Maxime Decomble
GROUPAMA-FDJ UNITED+28:34
127
Oscar Onley
NETCOMPANY INEOS+29:17
128
Ben Healy
EF EDUCATION - EASYPOST+34:05

But the worry for Seixas will be Del Toro. The Mexican champion looked to be out on a steady club ride while the French youngster was pulling all kinds of faces in front of him. Eventually, the UAE Team Emirates-XRG rider gave Seixas turns and led them across the line, but he is clearly the man that Seixas will be most focused on. If he can't distance him then he is in a fight for third place at the Tour and not yellow with Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike).

Why the margins matter for July

Del Toro's ability to follow is made more striking by his season. A stage 3 crash at Itzulia Basque Country left him with a thigh muscle tear, hip contusions and road rash, and he had not raced since. Del Toro's ability to match Seixas stride for stride after that disruption suggested Seixas's current climbing level remains within reach of his peers.

Del Toro and Seixas are beginning to form a really good rivalry already. The Mexican finished just nine seconds behind the Frenchman at Strade Bianche before Del Toro went on to win Tirreno-Adriatico. He did crash in the Basque Country but Seixas then dominated there. This is hopefully the first time they both have a proper face-off in the mountains.

Jorgenson added to Seixas not being quite at his top form after the stage where he told Cycling Pro Net after the stage that his form was "not my absolute best shape" and "nothing like I was in April, but I'm coming back." The rider from the US is returning from a broken collarbone at Amstel Gold Race but is not at peak form yet but only lost 13 seconds to Seixas and Del Toro.

The duo seemed to be coasting at the finish whereas Jorgenson was going all out, but it is still an interesting takeaway. It left Seixas's performance looking measured. The GC standings after stage 6 told the same story: Seixas moved to seventh at +3:06, with Jorgenson at +2:34, Ayuso and Skjelmose at +3:15, and Del Toro at +3:22.

Seixas will, of course, be focused on the climbs to come this weekend with the Grand Colombier and Plateau de Solaison before we can really form a clear opinion on this, but with so much hype around this French wonderkid, it is hard to avoid talking about what he will face with the return of Pogačar and Vingegaard at the Tour de France.

That duo are another level up again, so if Seixas struggles with Del Toro there could be worries. That said, there are plenty of opportunities in the final stages and there is time to build more form before July.

Cover image credit: Gaetan Flamme

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Tim Bonville-Ginn

Pro cycling contributor

Tim Bonville-Ginn is a freelance writer who has worked in cycling for well over a decade with his articles being featured across publications such as Cyclingnews, Cycling Weekly, Cyclist, Rouleur, Eurosport, Road cc, Domestique, and more.

As well as writing, Tim has worked as a social media and press manager for professional teams Human Powered Health, Global 6, and Saint Piran across Europe as well as commentating on races such as the African Continental Championships, Tour de Feminin and multiple rounds of the British road and circuit series for Golazo and Monument Cycling.

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