The 2026 Tour de France begins on 4 July and covers 3,320.2km across three weeks. Nine days out, the build-up points to two riders with a clear chance of winning the race and a crowded, unsettled group fighting for the final podium place.
There hasn't been a Tour in the last decade where one rider stands out so clearly as the clear front-runner, but there's still plenty of intrigue in the weeks ahead.
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates XRG) has lost once all season, finishing second to Wout van Aert at Paris-Roubaix. He used the Tour de Romandie to shed his Classics form, then returned to his dominant climbing level at the Tour de Suisse. He is the clear favourite. The squad have shown their depth despite having all kinds of issues with illness and injury to some of their top names. The riders lining up alongside Pogačar are largely still up in the air because of this.
Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike) is the only rider who looks like he might be capable of challenging the world champion. His win at the Giro d'Italia was measured, controlled and calm from both him and his team. He took five stage wins while looking like he was keeping something back and not in top shape. This means that he has further steps to take before he is on full Tour form, which may worry the UAE camp with a top-form Vingegaard often causing issues for Pogačar in the mountains and time trials. One issue for Visma is that they will be without super-domestique and all-rounder Wout van Aert after the Belgian rider got an infection in his injured elbow. He has been replaced by climber Davide Piganzoli who showed superb form in the final week of the Giro.
Third place is where the race opens up
Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe) is probably one of the best calls with solid climbing done at a strong but controlled tempo. He showed in last year's Tour that he is more than capable of being up with the best and pulled off a superb third in the final GC. He finished second behind Pogačar at the Tour de Romandie before he headed to the Tour of Slovenia where he and his team dominated both GC and stages with Lipowitz coming out on top to take the title. The team have the intrigue of Remco Evenepoel as well with the Olympic champion hoping to rediscover his best form for the Grand Tour after he has disappointed in the high mountains so far. Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe's own media day briefing framed Lipowitz and Remco Evenepoel as "true wingmen" for the Tour, with the podium as the stated goal. On current form, Lipowitz looks like the senior partner in that arrangement.
Isaac Del Toro (UAE Team Emirates XRG) would probably be a very good bet to challenge for the whole race if he was on any other team. The Mexican champion has had a superb season where he has won races like Tirreno-Adriatico earlier in the season and then took the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes overall after a late attack on the final mountain stage. However, he may be limited in his GC ambitions with Pogačar being the main focus. If Vingegaard is on his absolutely best possible form then UAE may not allow the possible podium shot from Del Toro. But, if all goes well then he may be allowed to go for his own objectives and a possible podium finish.
Photo credit: ASO/ Gaetan Flamme
Paul Seixas (Decathlon-CMA CGM) is a very interesting rider to watch for this race. The 19-year-old Frenchman is making his Grand Tour debut at his home race adding the huge amount of pressure and expectation that comes with it. The youngster may be allowed a bit less pressure, though, after his crash and eventual abandon of the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes but the top five is very realistic if he manages to make it through the three weeks. However, the opening TTT in Barcelona may be problematic after they lost around 45 seconds to Visma at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes that exposed the possible frailties of his squad.
Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek) shows so much promise when he is on a good day in the mountains or the TT bike. He looks like he could be a rider to really challenge for the big races. But then he has multiple bad days and loses minutes before, often, abandoning. However, this season has looked a little different for the rider from Barcelona. Luck has just not been on his side. He won the Volta ao Algarve at the start of the year ahead of Seixas before looking in superb shape at Paris-Nice. Sadly, the weather played its part and he was caught in a horrible high-speed crash that forced him to abandon in yellow. He reappeared a few weeks later at Itzulia Basque Country but this time illness forced him out of the race. If he has the form he showed in the mountains at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, though, he could be right up there with a shot at the podium.
Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe) will always be hyped up as a Grand Tour contender despite never really showing the best form against the very best. Even his Vuelta win has a caveat: Primož Roglič's abandonment. He has not shown any form at all in the high mountains with the Volta a Catalunya being a key showing of that. He was nowhere near the ability of an off-peak Vingegaard there and had to work for Lipowitz. It is worth the try from Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe to go with the view of Lipowitz and Evenepoel as co-leaders because he may surprise, but he hasn't raced since Liège-Bastogne-Liège in late April and the form before that doesn't suggest that he deserves to be placed ahead of the likes of Lipowitz, Del Toro, Seixas or even Ayuso just because of who he is.
Beyond the top seven
Beyond the big GC contenders, a group of riders could shape the top 10 or capitalise if anyone ahead falters. Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike) showed encouraging signs on his comeback from a broken collarbone at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes. Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility) finished second on stage 6 of that race as well as finishing fifth in the final GC. Tom Pidcock makes a return after his absence in 2025, but we'll expect him to hunt stages rather than target the overall GC.
Kévin Vauquelin, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Mattias Skjelmose, Ben O'Connor, Ben Healy and Richard Carapaz are all on the provisional startlist and are capable of strong individual weeks.
One rider who will not be there is Oscar Onley (Netcompany-Ineos). The 23-year-old from Kelso is still recovering from a dislocated shoulder and leg injuries sustained after a crash at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes. He finished fourth in last year's race, and his absence removes any realistic chance for Netcompany-Ineos to have a top GC finish.
The race starts with a two-man contest for yellow and a much more fluid battle for the last step on the podium in Paris.
Cover image credit: Zac Williams/SWpix.com
