Elisa Balsamo (Lidl-Trek) lines up at Sunday's Trofeo Alfredo Binda as the defending back-to-back champion, chasing a fourth title that would tie the all-time record held by Marianne Vos and Maria Canins. Balsamo won in 2022, 2024 and 2025, and victory on Sunday would make her the first rider to win three consecutive editions.
The 50th edition of the race, the sixth stop on the 2026 UCI Women's WorldTour, covers 152.7km from Luino on the shores of Lake Maggiore to Cittiglio, with around 2,300 metres of climbing. AccuWeather's forecast as of Friday calls for a high of 14°C and a low of 5°C on race day, with a 70% chance of rain. Heavy rain is expected on Saturday, raising the possibility of standing water on the circuit's descents.
The route
The race begins in Luino with a 3.8km neutral rollout, followed by roughly 25 flat kilometres tracking the Lake Maggiore shoreline. The first categorised climb, Bedero Valcuvia, arrives at kilometre 29.7 and serves as the initial selection point.
From there the route works southeast through an opening loop that includes an intermediate sprint at Olginasio before entering the race's defining feature: five laps of a 15.7km finishing circuit around Cittiglio.
Each lap features two climbs. The Casale is a short punch, 0.9km at around 6.6% average gradient. The Orino is longer and steadier, roughly 3km at close to 5%. Neither is decisive alone, but repeated across five laps the cumulative toll strips numbers from the front group. The Casale is a categorised QOM on laps one, three and five; the Orino is categorised on laps two and four.
The final ascent of the Orino crests with approximately 10.5km remaining, leaving a fast, technical descent into Cittiglio for the finish. That descent is where late-race gaps are either opened or closed. Three of the last five editions have ended in reduced bunch sprints, but in wet conditions, splits on the descent become harder to repair.
If the former comes to pass then Balsamo seems like a likely victor, but a split peloton could make things very unpredictable.
Key favourites
Elisa Balsamo (Lidl - Trek): The favourite if the race comes together for a sprint. Her 2025 victory came from a reduced bunch kick after a late breakaway was caught inside the final kilometre. Lidl - Trek can support her through the circuit laps with Shirin van Anrooij and Niamh Fisher-Black, both capable of policing moves and keeping the group intact.
Elisa Longo Borghini (UAE Team ADQ): A former Binda winner, she demonstrated sharp form by leading a UAE Team ADQ 1-2-3-4 at the Trofeo Oro in Euro on March 8. She also placed fourth at Strade Bianche. UAE have depth through Silvia Persico if the race fractures.
Katarzyna Niewiadoma-Phinney (CANYON//SRAM zondacrypto): Lost the Strade Bianche sprint by zero seconds in a photo finish. The strongest pure climber in the field for the Orino ramps, and the rider who benefits most if rain makes the final descent decisive.
Lotte Kopecky (Team SD Worx - Protime): Has finished on the Binda podium before, including second in 2024, but has never won it. SD Worx - Protime bring serious depth with Anna van der Breggen, Mischa Bredewold and Blanka Vas.
Marianne Vos (Team Visma | Lease a Bike): The four-time winner whose seventh place at Strade Bianche suggests she remains competitive at WorldTour level. No one in the field knows this course better.
Cover image credit: hardycc
