Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech) lines up on Sunday chasing a fourth Paris-Roubaix victory, a feat achieved only by Roger De Vlaeminck and Tom Boonen – neither of whom won consecutively.
Standing between him and history is the rider who beat him at Tour of Flanders one week ago: Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates - XRG), who finished second on his Roubaix debut last year.
The 123rd edition covers 258.3km from Compiègne to the Roubaix velodrome and includes 30 cobbled sectors totalling 54.8km. ASO has restructured the opening cobbled sequence so the first four sectors arrive in rapid succession with minimal tarmac between them. With the early attacks that have become common across the season, that change could see this Roubaix decided before the Trouée d'Arenberg.
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Route, conditions and how the race could unfold
The structural change matters because Roubaix is rarely won by sheer power alone. It rewards the rider who stays in the front group when the race first fractures. By clustering the early sectors more tightly and reinstating sector 26, which includes an 800m climb near Briastre, ASO has moved that fracture point forward. Teams with multiple protected riders can force the pace from the opening pavé and isolate rivals well before the traditional destruction points.
Those destruction points remain unchanged. The five-star Trouée d'Arenberg arrives with roughly 95km to go, Mons-en-Pévèle with 49km remaining and Carrefour de l'Arbre, usually the last decisive sector, at 17km from the velodrome. The four-star Haveluy to Wallers sector at 105km provides the first serious test before the race enters its familiar endgame geography.
Weather forecasts point to light rain into Sunday, leaving the cobbles damp rather than fully soaked for the men's race. Scattered showers are forecast to follow, with a moderate northwest wind around force 3. Damp cobbles are often worse than wet ones: the stones stay slick without washing clean, reducing grip and punishing any lapse in bike handling.
The Paris-Roubaix goats have already done their essential trimming on the Trouée d'Arenberg. Photo: ASO
Paris-Roubaix favourites
Paris-Roubaix 2026 Full Startlist
Van der Poel is the safest favourite because his Roubaix toolkit is the most complete in the field. He handles the cobbles better than any active rider, reads the race instinctively, and has a finishing sprint that few can match from a reduced group. His second place at Flanders showed he is close to his best.
Alpecin also start Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech), arguably the fastest finisher among the likely front group. That gives the team a tactical fork – Van der Poel can attack, and if the race comes back together, Philipsen can finish the job.
Pogačar is the rider most capable of breaking the script. He won Flanders on 5 April by breaking the race on the second Oude Kwaremont and holding off Van der Poel in the finale.
His only Roubaix vulnerability last year was a handling error deep into the race, not a fitness gap. If the tighter early sequence hardens the race sooner and reduces the group before Arenberg, Pogačar's pure power becomes harder to contain. Florian Vermeersch (UAE Team Emirates - XRG), a proven Roubaix specialist, gives the UAE squad a valuable second card.
Wout van Aert (Team Visma | Lease a Bike) finished fourth at Flanders. Roubaix gives him more room to use raw power over flat cobbles and less dependence on explosive climbing than Flanders does. With Christophe Laporte (Team Visma | Lease a Bike) as a strong lieutenant, Visma can keep Van Aert protected through the early chaos. This may be the Monument that best suits his remaining ceiling this spring.
Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) is one of the hardest riders to drop over cobbles and was fifth at Flanders. He lacks the pure acceleration of the top two but compensates with endurance, positioning and a dangerous sprint from a reduced group.
Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers) offers a different threat entirely: if the race becomes a sustained power contest on damp pavé, few riders in the peloton can match his output. A long, hard, wind-affected Roubaix would suit him.
The most likely scenario is a fast, attritional race that produces a small front group by Mons-en-Pévèle. If Van der Poel and Pogačar both survive to Carrefour de l'Arbre with 17km remaining, the final may come down to whether Pogačar can match Van der Poel's technical handling through the last sectors and into the velodrome. Van der Poel's three-year Roubaix record says he can. Pogačar's Flanders form says he might not need to.
Cover image credit: A.S.O./Pauline Ballet
