Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) holds a 41-point lead in the Tour de France points classification after 13 stages, but the unusually tight six-rider contest is set to be decided at Voiron on Stage 17.
Pedersen has 377 points, ahead of Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech) on 336 and Biniam Girmay (NSN Cycling Team) on 333. Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step), the only sprinter with three stage wins at this Tour, remains close enough to threaten on 307.
Only 70 points separate the leading four. Max Kanter (XDS Astana Team) has 239 points and Olav Kooij (Decathlon CMA CGM Team) has 210, leaving both mathematically in contention with eight stages remaining.
Kanter and Kooij need to win the most valuable remaining opportunities while Pedersen, Philipsen, Girmay and Merlier collect few points. Kooij's victory on the opening sprint stage shows he can take the maximum at a finish, but he begins the closing week 167 points behind Pedersen.
Philipsen's Stage 13 move exposed Pedersen's lead
Stage 13 from Dole to Belfort showed just how fast things can change at the Tour as Lidl-Trek missed the large breakaway of the day that also contained green jersey rival Philipsen. This meant Lidl-Trek had to chase and control the race. They did get back but Philipsen still took the 25 points. However, Pedersen managed to get the 20 points in second as Girmay took third and 16 points.
The five-point gain over Pedersen cut the lead, while Philipsen's nine-point advantage over Girmay moved him into second place.
“It was not ideal,” Pedersen said in an official Tour interview. “First we saw a big group and we were like: ‘Okay, it seems like there is no sprinter, so all good, all points are gone’. And then I was told on the radio Philipsen was in.
"The hard work really started from here and it was full full gas for an hour and a half to get back. First, we were pulling in the peloton. And when we stopped, a group went, so it was just all out until we made it to the front. It was a really tough day. All in all, I would say it was, again, sadly, a good day of damage control in the end."
Stage 17 from Chambéry to Voiron is the decisive remaining sprint. The intermediate sprint at Colombe offers 25 points, while victory at the coefficient-two finish is worth 50. A rider taking both can collect 75 points in one afternoon, more than the current gap between Pedersen and any of his three closest challengers.
The 174.7km route contains almost 2,400 metres of climbing, much of it early, before a flatter final approach to Voiron. That means a breakaway could well be a factor and with riders and teams tired and depleted, it will be hard to control. Pedersen and his Lidl-Trek team will be hoping that a break does succeed.
Philipsen or Girmay could overhaul Pedersen by taking maximum points while the leader finishes outside the leading places. Merlier's 70-point deficit also fits within the 75 available, although Pedersen would need to score almost nothing. Kanter and Kooij require a larger sequence of results and missed opportunities from the riders ahead with intermediate sprints from breakaways being the only realistic way of challenging.
The points have been spread widely throughout the Tour. Merlier has three victories, Kooij won the first sprint finish, Søren Wærenskjold (Uno-X Mobility) produced a surprise Stage 11 win and Pedersen took Stage 4 from the breakaway. Intermediate sprints and consistent placings explain why Pedersen leads despite Merlier winning more stages.
Points remain available after Voiron, including on the final stage in Paris, although the days of a certain sprint on the Champs-Élysées are long gone since the inclusion of the Montmartre climb. Stages 18, 19 and 20 head into the Alps making Stage 17 the last realistic conventional sprint finish and the likeliest stage for the green jersey to be won or lost.
Cover image credit: Thomas Maheux
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