For Sam Welsford (Ineos Grenadiers), anything less than three sprint victories at the 2026 Santos Tour Down Under would represent his worst showing for three years.
Welsford took a sprint hat-trick at the 2025 TDU with Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, repeating his 2024 haul and taking his two-year total to six. The question for 2026 is whether Ineos can replicate the infrastructure that delivered him to those victories. First, though, how did they play out?
Welsford's 2025 campaign, though somewhat front-loaded, included multiple long sprints backed by strong team support. On Stage 1 to Gumeracha at the TDU, he launched a long-range sprint with approximately 250 metres remaining and held off Matthew Brennan (Visma-Lease a Bike) by a narrow margin, despite celebrating early and admitting he was "cooked" by the line.
Stage 2 tested his durability. Welsford crashed within the first five kilometres, ripping his shorts and sustaining bruising. He was later dropped on the final ascent of Menglers Hill with 22 kilometres remaining. His teammates, including Danny van Poppel and Laurence Pithie, hauled him back into the peloton with 10 kilometres to go. He won the sprint with a clear margin over Arne Marit (Intermarché-Wanty).
The final stage in Adelaide saw Welsford complete his hat-trick, avoiding a major crash in the final kilometre and beating Bryan Coquard (Cofidis) and Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain-Victorious). The pattern across all three victories was consistent: a lead-out train that controlled the final kilometres, followed by an early, power-based sprint.
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Ineos' sprint project
The signing of Welsford on a two-year deal adds a dedicated sprinter to the Ineos Grenadiers roster. Geraint Thomas, now Director of Racing, acknowledged the team has rarely focused on pure sprinters but said Welsford's track pedigree suggests "plenty to unlock."
Welsford in his newly acquired Ineos team ki
Ineos has structured its 2026 TDU roster to support Welsford while maintaining a GC option with Jack Haig. Samuel Watson, the British national champion, provides a high-speed secondary option or final lead-out. Ben Swift offers experience as road captain, having previously finished on TDU podiums. Michal Kwiatkowski is tasked with controlling positioning in busy mid-stage transitions.
The team has also integrated recently retired sprinter Elia Viviani into the management structure as a Sport Director, drawing on his recent race experience.
However, the absence of Van Poppel, Welsford's "silver bullet" lead-out man from 2024 and 2025, leaves him without his established TDU lead-out. Van Poppel was credited with near-perfect delivery in all of Welsford's TDU wins. Watson and Swift are both fast, but they have not previously worked together as a sprint train at WorldTour level.
The sprint field
Welsford faces a group of rivals, several of whom came close to beating him in 2025.
Matthew Brennan (Visma-Lease a Bike) is considered one of the main rivals. In 2025, he secured second on Stage 1, third in the Villawood Classic, and third on Stage 2. He was 19 during that edition and returns as a more seasoned rider. Brennan's ability to exploit any disorganisation in the Ineos train, particularly on technical or uphill finishes, means he can take advantage of late problems in their lead-out.
Bryan Coquard (Cofidis) remains one of the most consistent sprinters in the field. He won Stage 4 in 2025 and regularly finishes on the podium in Adelaide. That represented this only WorldTour win of 2025, though, and now in his mid-30s Welsford may boast substantially more punch.
Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain-Victorious) thrives in high-speed, clean finishes. He finished third in the 2025 final stage and will target similar opportunities if the lead-out battle goes smoothly.
Arne Marit (Intermarché-Wanty) showed significant speed in 2025, taking second on Stage 2 despite being dropped on the climbs earlier in the day. On undulating stages that thin the bunch, Marit has previously been able to contest the podium when he stays in contact.
Course dynamics and tactical questions
The TDU typically offers three or four stages suited to bunch sprints, and this year's TDU route offers sprinters their best shot on Stages 1 and 3 while Stage 5's lumpy Stirling finish is a tougher opportunity. Welsford's style, characterised by early, long-range efforts, is well-suited to longer, straight finishes where he can use endurance developed on the track. This years course, tipped by organisers as the "toughest ever" offers more opportunity to the puncheurs.
For Welsford, results in Adelaide will influence the rest of his season. The Australian has only raced the Tour de France once, and will need a solid case to allow Ineos to focus their Tour roster on his sprint opportunities.
Cover image credit: Zac Williams/SWpix.com
