The eighth round of the UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup lands in Dendermonde on 28 December, right in the teeth of the Kerstperiode. The course divides riders: some see it as a power test, others as survival.
The Dendermonde course: heavy clay and hard truths
Set around Hamsesteenweg, Dendermonde has already built a reputation as one of the World Cup’s most brutal layouts. The key characteristics are simple on paper and savage in practice:
- Heavy clay soil: The local, clay-rich ground holds water more than most Belgian venues. Even without race‑day rain it stays saturated, cutting speeds and turning pedal strokes into deadweight.
- Long, exposed straights: Several flat drags, often into a headwind, reward riders who can hold huge torque at low cadence rather than punchy accelerations.
- Cobbled sectors: Rough, slightly crowned cobbles threaded into the lap add vibration and traction changes just when riders are already on the limit. Tyre pressure choices become a real gamble between grip, comfort and puncture risk.
- Forced running: As a previous edition under “Storm Bella” proved in 2020, Dendermonde can become a runner’s race. When the ruts deepen and the mud thickens, riding can be slower than shouldering the bike. That said, with dry, cold conditions, we'd expect the race this year to be spent predominantly on the bike.
There are standard features – short banks, stairs, a few rhythm‑breaking turns – but unlike a technical labyrinth such as Namur, this is fundamentally a power-and-running course. Technique matters, but only if you have the diesel engine to reach those sections in contention.
Weather and conditions: sticky, frigid, selective
Forecasts for Sunday point to around 2°C, dry skies and a northeasterly wind of ~10 km/h. There's no fresh rain on the forecast, but the ground has been soaked by earlier winter fronts.
That combination means:
- Sticky, viscous mud, not watery slop – bikes could pick up kilos of clay, forcing frequent pit changes.
- Greasy cambers and corners, where frozen top layers can polish up over the race.
- A mild headwind on the open drags, discouraging long solo chases behind any early leader.
The strongest riders will move forward as others fade or are worn down by running and bike issues.
Women Elite: Brand vs Pieterse, with Alvarado lurking
The Women’s Elite start list is deep rather than star‑studded, with one huge absentee: Fem van Empel is missing, having announced her early retirement from the sport a few weeks ago, leaving Dendermonde to the most proven mud specialists.
The favourites
Lucinda Brand (Baloise Glowi Lions) arrives with both course history and exceptional current form having won every World Cup this year. She won here in January 2025, grinding away from Puck Pieterse in super‑heavy conditions. Brand’s strengths are tailor‑made for this lap: high sustainable power, relentless pace in the mud, and efficient, fast running. The colder and slower it gets, the more the race bends towards her.
Puck Pieterse (Fenix–Deceuninck) was second to Brand in Dendermonde last season despite a late puncture and has again split her winter around mountain bike and road commitments. On faster, more technical circuits her explosiveness and bike handling can unpick Brand; here, heavy clay reduces that advantage. She will need to start aggressively and hope to force errors before Brand drags her back on the long drags.
Amandine Fouquenet enters in career-best form. She had a superb start in Gavere, and showed technical consistency throughout. Expect her to be a real threat if Brand and Pieterse push too hard or slip out on one of the course's muddy corners.
From the rest of the Dutch-Belgian armada, several riders are well suited to an elimination race:
- Aniek van Alphen (SEVEN Racing) – series leader earlier in the season after consistent rides on varying terrain; not the favourite in deep mud, but has finished consistently this season.
- Shirin van Anrooij (Baloise Glowi Lions) – outstanding engine and former Dendermonde U23 standout; she could form a one‑two with Brand if she runs well.
- Amandine Fouquenet – Not a typical favourite for Dendermonde, but her win at Superprestige Heusden-Zolder and podium at Gavere show she's on the form of her career.
Leonie Bentveld and Inge van der Heijden are also in the field.
Women’s race dynamics
Pieterse typically starts fast, trying to enter the first mud sections in the clear, while Fenix–Deceuninck can use Alvarado to mark Brand. Brand typically applies pressure every lap rather than making one big move. If she can force Pieterse into the red on the exposed headwind straights, gaps opened in the mud will be extremely hard to close.
Behind, a second group of five to eight riders is likely to form, riding more for the overall World Cup than the day’s win. Mistakes in the pits – a missed bike change or slow clean – could decide who makes the podium.
Men Elite: Van Aert versus the World Cup regulars
The men’s race has a very different dynamic. Wout van Aert (Team Visma | Lease a Bike) is on a circuit that might as well have been designed for him. He obliterated Dendermonde last winter with a winning margin of over a minute and has historically used these heavy World Cups to build towards the road spring.
With Mathieu van der Poel absent from the start list following his dominant streak at the World Cup's so far, Van Aert is the only top-tier rider in the field. When the course requires running and power, his combination of raw wattage and speed on foot has won repeatedly.
But unlike Van Aert, the World Cup regulars are riding for the series as much as the day:
- Laurens Sweeck (Crelan–Corendon) sits second in the standings behind Van der Poel and has rebuilt his season on consistency rather than outright domination. Dendermonde does not suit him ideally, but he is efficient in ruts and has finished consistently. Expect him to measure his effort, focusing more on direct rivals than on Van Aert if the Belgian champion goes early.
- Michael Vanthourenhout (Pauwels Sauzen – Altez), winner of the Terralba World Cup in the sand after a perfectly timed last‑lap move, has strong technical skills in greasy conditions. If the surface ices slightly and becomes slick rather than bottomless, his cornering could close some of the raw‑power gap.
- Joris Nieuwenhuis (Ridley Racing Team) Despite being on the start list, following repeated knee problems he will be sitting out Dendermonde and possibly much of the remaining cyclocross season.
- Thibau Nys, Tibor Del Grosso (Alpecin-Deceuninck) & Lars van der Haar (Baloise Glowi Lions) bring depth. Nys has the highest ceiling on punchier tracks - and on Boxing Day even Van der Poel struggled to drop him. However, here, Del Grosso's diesel may be more suited, and he got the better of Wout van Aert in Superprestige Heusden-Zolder. Van der Haar’s experience counts massively on a course where pacing and pit timing are everything.
- Gerben Kuypers (Charles Liégeois Roastery) and Felipe Orts could reach the top five if conditions stay rideable – both excel when steady power is rewarded.
Men’s race dynamics
Recent Dendermonde editions have followed a pattern: Van Aert attacks early, everyone else races behind. Expect him to move within the first two laps, especially on the longest headwind drag where he can ride his preferred time trial cadence and simply drop the rest into the mud.
Once that split forms, Van Aert will race alone up front, while Sweeck and Vanthourenhout fight for podium spots and World Cup points behind. Team tactics will matter – Crelan and Baloise can play numbers to attack and counter‑attack Vanthourenhout.
Predictions
Women Elite
- Lucinda Brand – Course history, running strength and current form all point in the same direction.
- Puck Pieterse – Fastest on technique, but likely to pay for early aggression as the mud grinds on.
- Amandine Fouquenet – After her excellent showing at Gavere, we'll expect to see Fouquenet make her attack.
Outside bets: Shirin van Anrooij, Laura Verdonschot for the top five if the race becomes a war of attrition.
Men Elite
- Wout van Aert – Dendermonde is almost his playground: deep mud, long straights, running. Only bad luck beats him.
- Thibau Nys – After his supremely strong showing in Gavere, we expect to see Nys as a serious contender, but history favour Van Aert for the win.
- Michael Vanthourenhout – Technical mastery and race craft keep him in the podium fight even if he lacks Van Aert’s sheer power.
Look for Laurens Sweeck and Pim Ronhaar in a tight cluster just behind, more focused on series arithmetic than on the seemingly inevitable winner up the road.
Cover image: Alex Whitehead/SWpix.com
