Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates XRG) will start La Vuelta a España on Saturday as the overwhelming favourite to win the one Grand Tour absent from his palmares.
The world champion is returning to the Spanish Grand Tour for the first time in seven years, having made his Grand Tour debut there in 2019, when he finished third and won three stages. He won the Tour de France a year later and now has five Tour titles and a Giro d’Italia victory to his name. The finish in Granada on September 13 could see him complete the Grand Tour set.
Pogačar won the Tour this year by almost six and a half minutes over Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) and has been beaten just once all season at Paris-Roubaix. On that evidence, illness, injury or an untimely incident appear more credible threats than any individual rival.
“I’m excited to say I’m going back to La Vuelta,” Pogačar said when confirming his return. “It was my first ever Grand Tour back in 2019 and an amazing experience.”
The 21-stage route covers 3,275km and includes six mountain stages, four medium-mountain stages and two individual time trials. Andorra, Alto de Aitana, Calar Alto, Sierra de La Pandera, Peñas Blancas and Collado del Alguacil provide the principal climbing tests.
Those repeated summit finishes put Pogačar firmly in contention for the mountains jersey. Multiple stage victories and consistently high finishes could bring the green points jersey within reach, even with several established fast finishers present.
Roglič, Carapaz and Gall lead the challengers
Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) has the strongest record in the race, with four overall victories in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2024. It would be a minor miracle if he added a fifth title and became the outright record-holder, moving clear of Roberto Heras.
However, a late-July training crash forced Roglič to withdraw from the Clásica San Sebastián and Vuelta a Burgos, and he has not raced since the Slovenian championships in June. He had also gone without a victory during an uneven opening half of the season. His experience and Vuelta-focused programme keep him among the leading contenders, but there is no evidence that he can match Pogačar.
Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) offers the strongest recent Grand Tour form. The former Olympic champion took two stage wins, the mountains jersey and eighth overall at the Tour before finishing second in San Sebastián behind a storming ride from Evenepoel. He has performed well at La Vuelta before, finishing second in 2020 and fourth in 2024.
Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM) comes to the Vuelta after the best campaign of his career. He finished second to Jonas Vingegaard at the Giro and then won the Vuelta a Burgos, taking his first professional stage-race title immediately before the Vuelta. The two time trials are his biggest weakness, but his climbing form makes a podium finish realistic.
Oscar Onley (Netcompany-Ineos) finished only five seconds behind Gall at Burgos after winning stage 2. He also secured the points and mountains classifications in his first race since dislocating his shoulder at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes. Netcompany-Ineos is the only team yet to confirm its full line-up, although Onley is expected to start.
Sepp Kuss (Visma-Lease a Bike) may again have a support role after working for Vingegaard at both the Giro and Tour. He could work for Jørgen Nordhagen or Ben Tulett, although Kuss won La Vuelta the last time he completed all three Grand Tours in a single season.
Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), sixth at the Tour, and three-time Vuelta runner-up Enric Mas (Movistar) head the wider podium candidates. UAE can turn to João Almeida if required, while Gall’s teammate Matthew Riccitello finished fifth at last year’s Vuelta.
Bahrain Victorious pair Santiago Buitrago and Pello Bilbao, Movistar’s Iván Romeo and Cian Uijtdebroeks, and Visma’s Nordhagen and Tulett are also in contention. Jarno Widar (Lotto-Intermarché), Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility), Harold Tejada (XDS Astana) and Marco Brenner (Tudor) are other top-10 or stage-win candidates.
Sprinters face a selective route
Matthew Brennan and Wout van Aert give Team Visma-Lease a Bike two leading options for reduced sprints and the points classification. Van Aert dominated the Tour of Denmark on his return to racing with three stage wins and the overall title and is targetting stage wins and the red jersey early on in the race. While Brennan makes his Grand Tour debut despite a slightly less impressive season. That said, the rider from Darlington in northern England took two stage wins in Burgos.
Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), Jordi Meeus (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) and Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Premier Tech) are the other main contenders for the green jersey. Pedersen won stage 4 of the Tour, while Meeus and Groves should have chances when the limited flat stages produce conventional bunch finishes.
Christophe Laporte (Visma-Lease a Bike), Bryan Coquard (Cofidis), Magnus Cort (Uno-X Mobility), Alberto Dainese (Soudal-QuickStep), Vito Braet (Lotto-Intermarché), Steffen De Schuyteneer (Lotto-Intermarché), Orluis Aular (Movistar), Marc Brustenga (Kern Pharma), César Macías (Burgos-Burpellet-BH) and Matevž Govekar (Bahrain Victorious) broaden the sprinter field. Their opportunities will depend on surviving a route designed to keep the climbers involved throughout the race.
