Remco Evenepoel comes into the European Championships in Slovenia as the big favourite for the road race despite a disappointing display at the Worlds, while Jakob Söderqvist looks like a good call for the time trial based on his Worlds form.
Tadej Pogačar will miss both. UAE said he had no further races planned, and Slovenia’s team selection on September 30 omitted him, ending any speculation that the Slovenian superstar could be making a surprise early comeback.
Road race: October 4, Ljubljana to Šenčur
Sunday’s road race starts in Ljubljana at 12:30 local time, covering 196.3km to Šenčur. After a largely flat approach, five 22.1km laps each bring 367m of climbing.
Možjanca is the toughest climb at 2.1km averaging 10.2% and maxing at 15.8%. The descent isn’t immediate either, with a narrow road over rolling terrain before the descent towards Krvavec. Fast valley roads and just over seven kilometres after Strmol Castle give a chasing group room to regain ground. Repeated attacks can force a selection; the course also leaves room for a group finish.
Evenepoel is the rider to watch, with a solo attack his likeliest route to victory. He had to rely on his sprint to beat Giulio Ciccone at the GP Québec before he took his fourth consecutive world TT title. That said, he had a disappointing performance finishing 12th at the Montréal Worlds road race, showing he can have an off-day.
Mads Pedersen finished sixth in Montréal, on a 273.7km course with 12 main-climb ascents. The route in Slovenia has less climbing on a much shorter course but the climbs are slightly longer and harder. Pedersen will hope to replicate his performance in Canada and try to add a European title to the world title he took in 2019.
Giulio Ciccone put on a superb display at the Worlds road race, with constant attacks off the front, but despite the brave effort for the win he could only manage to take ninth in the end. He is clearly a rider in top form, though, and this route could suit his attributes perfectly.
Primož Roglič, confirmed for both races, was second at the Vuelta and attacked early in Montréal before finishing 21st. He looked strong on the day in Canada, surprising many commentators. The repeated steep climbs suit his accelerations, with the home star hoping that the local support will help him thrive on the day.
Jan Christen has terrain for an uphill attack. The rolling road beyond Možjanca offers another chance to split a climbing group. Romain Grégoire is dangerous in a reduced-group finish. France can use its climbing options to make that group smaller.
Mathias Vacek has a good turn of speed if he survives. Christian Scaroni was fourth at last year’s Europeans; Juan Ayuso, sixth then, can attack on Možjanca. Kévin Vauquelin gives France a climbing option, while Maxim Van Gils can move ahead and spare Evenepoel some chasing.
Time trial: October 7, Šenčur
Wednesday’s TT starts at 16:15 local time. Its 22.1km circuit has 367m of climbing. Riders must pace Možjanca carefully and sustain their effort over the rolling summit road. The technical descent demands clean handling before seven flat kilometres reward aerodynamic power.
Söderqvist finished fifth at Worlds, 13 seconds off bronze despite crashing with less than three kilometres left. At the final checkpoint he was level with the eventual silver medallist and five seconds ahead of bronze. Možjanca, however, adds a climbing complication that may suit a GC rider or puncheur with a strong TT.
Roglič is just that sort of rider and was fourth in the Vuelta’s flat 32.1km TT, 19 seconds off victory, which was seen as a disappointing result on the day. His climbing ability suits this route, though his recent TT result leaves him short of favourite status.
Bruno Armirail was seventh in that stage, 26 seconds back. The flat finish gives him a chance to make up time after the climb. He is steadily building towards a big result, could this be it?
Callum Thornley was second in the Vuelta TT, just three seconds off victory, then ninth at Worlds. He has podium-level speed; transferring it to this steep, technical circuit is the challenge.
Ethan Hayter was ninth in the Vuelta TT. Ilan Van Wilder and Vacek need to carry speed through the descent into the flat run-in. Mikkel Bjerg and Mattia Cattaneo arrive after 12th and 16th at Worlds respectively. Both have seven flat kilometres to make their power count.
