The UCI Cyclo‑cross World Cup returns to the grounds of Château de Flamanville this Sunday for round two, with both elite races wide open after a disrupted opening month of the winter. With Mathieu van der Poel, Wout van Aert, Fem van Empel and Lucinda Brand all skipping Normandy, the familiar hierarchy is stripped away and World Cup jerseys are suddenly up for grabs.
For those planning to tune into the race, check out our guide on how to watch Flamanville World Cup.
The course: fast, exposed, deceptively technical
Flamanville’s 2.9 km circuit threads around the château estate on a hard granite base. In dry conditions it rides fast, more tempo course than mud slog, with elite lap times close to the five‑minute mark. But that same base becomes treacherously slick when damp, turning innocuous bends into off‑camber puzzles and making tyre choice as important as pure power.
The profile is relatively benign – no long climbs, just repeated short rises where riders punch 10–15 second efforts well above threshold before settling back into a high tempo. On a clean lap the strongest can sit at roughly 5.8–6.2 W/kg repeatedly; what separates podium from top ten is how they layer that power onto the course’s technical nodes:
- Staircase and planks: two forced dismount zones where smooth running and fast remounts can open two to three seconds per lap. Any hesitation quickly turns into a gap you never get back.
- Footbridge and tight woodland: twisty, speed‑checking corners reward riders who can brake late and trust side‑bite. Sloppy line choice here forces repeated sprints back up to speed.
- Exposed grassland: with a forecast WSW wind around 24 km/h, these sectors will feel like a road race. Expect crosswinds and echelon‑style riding when groups form.
Pits will likely be one‑bike territory if the rain holds off, but teams will monitor the morning categories closely. A shower or two could tip the paddock towards intermediate treads and more frequent changes if the granite polishes up.
Men: Nys vs the pack on a power circuit
Without the big three road‑cross stars, Thibau Nys arrives as the clear reference point. The Baloise Glowi Lions rider dominated the early block, winning Koppenbergcross, Flandriencross and the opening World Cup in Tábor before a mechanically compromised day at Rapencross. Flamanville’s fast grass and repeated accelerations could hardly suit him better: he excels at keeping the speed high on the flats then detonating rivals with sharp, seated surges out of corners.
Tactically, expect Nys and team‑mate Lars van der Haar to use numbers. Van der Haar thrives on this kind of power‑heavy lap, reading wind and position as well as anyone. One likely scenario is Van der Haar forcing the early tempo in the exposed sections, stringing the race into a line and softening up the field before Nys launches on lap three or four.
The main resistance comes from Laurens Sweeck and Joris Nieuwenhuis. Sweeck’s second place in Tábor underlines his ability to grind a high, steady pace; if the wind makes solo moves costly, his diesel engine and efficient technique could neutralise Nys’ accelerations. Nieuwenhuis, fresh off a win at Rapencross and the podium in Tábor, offers perhaps the most balanced threat – excellent starter, strong in the wind, rarely makes big technical errors.
Michael Vanthourenhout is the volatility factor. He has shown flashes of top‑end speed but mixed them with DNFs and crashes. A slightly slipperier Flamanville would suit his bike handling, and if he can start cleanly and avoid incidents, he has the ceiling to win.
Behind them, riders such as Pim Ronhaar, Witse Meeussen, Niels VandePutte and Toon Vandebosch are poised to benefit from any chaos. On a course where groups can form in the wind, a second wave rider who commits early to a strong chase could sneak onto the podium if the favourites hesitate.
Women: Alvarado’s comeback meets Van der Heijden’s momentum
The women’s race is defined by absence on one side and return on the other. World Cup leader Lucinda Brand has chosen to train through this weekend, while Fem van Empel continues her injury recovery. Into that vacuum steps Inge van der Heijden, European champion in Middelkerke and third in Tábor, as the most reliable benchmark.
Van der Heijden’s strengths align neatly with Flamanville: she rides efficiently at high pace, maintains speed through corners and rarely over‑extends early. If the course stays mostly dry, her ability to hold a metronomic tempo into the wind could wear down more explosive rivals.
The big unknown is Ceylin del Carmen Alvarado, returning from a knee injury that has kept her out since September. At her best, Alvarado is one of the sport’s most incisive technical riders: she carves tight lines through technical sections and can change pace brutally in the final laps. The question is not whether Flamanville suits her – it does – but how much race sharpness she has after a long lay‑off. An early fast start would signal confidence; if she can survive the mid‑race lull that often punishes returnees, she is capable of winning outright.
Behind that duo, Aniek van Alphen arrives buoyed by her European Championship podium, with Denise Betsema, Annemarie Worst, Manon Bakker and Shirin van Anrooij all dangerous in different scenarios. Betsema, in particular, becomes more of a factor if showers arrive and traction deteriorates. Her ability to ride slick cambers at low cadence could translate into repeated small gains every lap.
Weather, tactics and likely scenarios
The forecast suggests cool, windy conditions with a non‑trivial chance of showers. If the rain stays away and the grass remains firm, both races are likely to resemble high‑speed elimination battles, with small front groups formed by the wind and riders winning through relentless pressure rather than single, spectacular attacks.
If it does turn damp, line choice and tyre pressure will dominate. Expect more conservative first laps, with leaders probing through the footbridge and stair/plank combinations to force rivals into mistakes, and more frequent pit visits as teams chase grip.
Predictions
Men
1. Thibau Nys
2. Joris Nieuwenhuis
3. Laurens Sweeck
If Baloise control the race and Nys avoids mechanical drama, his current form on a power‑biased course should prevail. Nieuwenhuis and Sweeck look best placed to survive that intensity and exploit any hesitation.
Women
1. Inge van der Heijden
2. Ceylin del Carmen Alvarado
3. Aniek van Alphen
Van der Heijden’s recent race rhythm and steadiness make her the safest pick on a fast, windy circuit. Alvarado’s ceiling is higher, but after months off, she may lack one late acceleration; Van Alphen’s improving form gives her the edge in the fight for the final podium spot.
As ever in Flamanville, the riders who can weld big power to clean, repeatable technique – and who read the wind better than their rivals – will walk away with the points and the narrative.
Cover picture credit: Simon Wilkinson/SWpix.com
