Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) won Paris-Nice on Sunday in Nice, becoming the first Danish rider to win the Race to the Sun and doing so by the largest margin in 87 years. With Tadej Pogačar dominating the Strade Bianche last weekend, the two major favourites for the Tour de France are both showing signs of career-best form.
Vingegaard finished 4 minutes and 23 seconds ahead of Daniel Felipe Martínez (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) in the final general classification, with Georg Steinhauser (EF Education-EasyPost) completing the podium at 6:07. The gap to Daniel Felipe Martínez is the largest at Paris-Nice since Maurice Archambaud won by 9:33 in 1939. In the 21st century, no previous winner had led by more than 1:15.
Vingegaard's performance was broadly extremely strong, save for conceding victory on the final stage into Nice to Lenny Martínez (Bahrain Victorious). The two had made an impressive attack on the Côte du Linguador, proving Vingegaard's versatility on what might have been considered more of a puncheur stage. Online estimates for the power-to-weight effort sat at around 7.17W/kg, an exceptionally powerful effort from both the Dane and French rider.
The race was effectively decided on stage 4, where Vingegaard truly shone. Crosswinds and rain fractured the peloton early, and race leader Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek) crashed with around 40 kilometres remaining and was forced to abandon.
Pogačar vs Vingegaard Tour history
Year | Pogačar | Vingegaard | Gap | Pogačar stages | Vingegaard stages | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | ||||||
| 2021 | ||||||
| 2022 | ||||||
| 2023 | ||||||
| 2024 | ||||||
| 2025 |
It held uncanny symmetry to Vingegaard's withdrawal from Paris-Nice while also in the yellow jersey 12 months earlier. Following Ayuso's withdrawal, Vingegaard attacked on the final climb, took the stage win and the yellow jersey, and opened a gap that no rival came close to closing for the rest of the week.
The comparison between the two would have been the strongest reference point to Pogačar, but even without Ayuso it was clear that Vingegaard had made a full recovery from the crash – which accompanied a controversial discourse around fan etiquette – and illness which saw him withdraw from the UAE Tour.
Vingegaard arguably began to draw level with Pogačar in cycling's fan meme ecosystem too, proudly sporting a set of bib-tights which looked like loose dungarees.
Giro-Tour and the Pogačar showdown
The victory confirms Vingegaard's form at the start of a season structured around a Giro d'Italia and Tour de France double. He races Volta a Catalunya later this month before his Giro debut in May.
"If you do too much in the spring, you pay for it in the Tour," Vingegaard said earlier this year when questioned about his lean calendar. His performance in Nice suggests the selective approach is effective.
That's in stark contrast to Pogačar, who has taken a seemingly more YOLO approach to the 2026 racing season, with his sights set on dominance at the Classics as well as the Tour de France.
The question will be whether Vingegaard's more focussed and calculated Grand Tour campaign will pay dividends. While Pogačar may seem invincible, the 2023 race where he trailed in the wake of Vingegaard's far more capable climbing efforts was not a lifetime ago.
The Volta a Catalunya later this month will offer an even more precise comparison, as Vingegaard lines up against Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), and we will then see a sharp picture of the non-Pogačar Tour favourites emerge.
Cover image credit: Billy Ceusters
