Rick Pluimers (Tudor Pro Cycling Team), speaking on the Live Slow Ride Fast podcast, on April 8, said Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech) carries a greater "aura" in the peloton than Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and is his top favourite for Paris-Roubaix on Sunday.
Pluimers, who crashed right in front of Van der Poel at Omloop Nieuwsblad on the Molenberg, observed both riders at close quarters during the Tour of Flanders weekend and said Van der Poel's physical presence stood out. The episode title itself made his position plain: "Het aura van Mathieu is toch nog groter dan dat van Pogačar" – Mathieu's aura is still bigger than Pogačar's.
Use of the word "aura" sounds rather abstract. Pluimers is using it in a far more solid way: it is the way that Van der Poel takes up space in the peloton while on cobbled terrain. His body language that gets riders to work with him or, occasionally, even for him without them knowing. The weight of three consecutive Roubaix wins and three Tour of Flanders victories carry well on his shoulders.
"Mathieu has just a little more aura in a group like that. That is also because Pogačar is slightly smaller. He can suddenly be sitting next to you." Pluimers explained. "With Van der Poel, it is different. But then again, Pogačar is always at the front. He is the strongest, but he is also always well-positioned."
Why Pluimers sees Roubaix as Pogačar's hardest Monument
Pluimers argued that Roubaix's profile, with its lack of elevation gain and reliance on flat, repetitive cobbled sectors, strips away the climbing advantage Pogačar normally weaponises. At Flanders, Pogačar can attack on the Koppenberg, the Oude Kwaremont, or the Paterberg. At Roubaix, there is no equivalent gradient to create separation. The race is decided by positioning, handling, repeated accelerations on rough ground, and the accumulated fatigue of 29 sectors of pavé.
This is the main basis to Pluimers' argument. The Tudor rider even goes as far to suggest where the former world champion attacks the current wearer of the rainbow jersey, by using the element of surprise.
"That’s less easy in the Tour, but last year in Roubaix you saw Mathieu go all out a few times from behind Pogacar, who then had to close a gap again. That might be the way to wear him down. Accelerating hard in every corner and pushing through as fast as possible. In that technical area, I think you can hurt him. But whether you can wear him down enough to drop him... That is difficult, of course."
Pluimers also thinks that, while UAE Team Emirates-XRG are strong, they will struggle to make it hard enough to test Van der Poel in the early stages, especially when he has former two-time runner up, Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech), on his team... "For UAE, it will be harder to make it tough enough for him to drop Mathieu. But the same goes the other way around. For me, Mathieu is the top favourite."
Pogačar's spring record is unbeaten in 2026. He won Strade Bianche, Milan-San Remo, and the Tour of Flanders to arrive at Roubaix unbeaten in 2026 and chasing a historic sweep of all five Monuments. An achievement only previously achieves by three Belgian greats of the sport, Eddy Merckx, Rik Van Looy and Roger de Vlaeminck. If Pogačar does win on Sunday, he will be a near certainty to become the first ever rider to win all five Monuments in one season with Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Il Lombardia suiting the Tour de France champion more than the others.
On his Roubaix debut last year he was in contention before crashing on the Mons-en-Pévèle sector, a mistake that handed Van der Poel his third straight victory. That result showed Pogačar can race at the very front of Roubaix, but also that the race punishes even small technical errors.
Van der Poel's Roubaix record is consistent. He has finished on the podium in four of his five appearances and has won the past three editions. His cyclocross and mountain bike background gives him an instinct for rough surfaces that is hard to replicate, and his acceleration from the front has repeatedly proved decisive in the final 30km. It is clear he is the bookies' favourite to take a record-equalling four victory at the Roubaix velodrome.
Of course, Van der Poel and Pogačar aren't the only riders in the race, Wout Van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike), Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers) among others will be hoping for a very strong display on the brutal cobbles of Northern France.
The question for Sunday is whether Roubaix again amplifies Van der Poel's specialist strengths, or whether Pogačar has closed the gap on the one Monument that most clearly resists his usual pattern of domination.
Cover image credit: Maxime Delobel
